GTO Betting/Raising - What's the Point
I've heard from several legit resources lately during the explanation of GTO vs Exploitable/Exploitative play, this type of phrase:
When we have a balanced betting/raising range, with proper bet sizing, we maximize EV (expected value) overall and are indifferent to our opponent/villain's decision. When he calls we have the proper amount of value to make up for the calls/raises when we're behind. And when he folds we have enough bluffs to make money that way.
On the surface this sounds pretty fantastic. OK, so in order for me not to be exploitable, let's bet a certain size and make sure that based on that sizing, we have enough bluffs and even value hands to balance it out. And whether my opponent folds 100% of the time, 0% of the time, half & half, or whatever, I'm good! Great! And this will do wonders for my mental game because even if in this hand my opponent does the thing that loses me money, I'm +EV overall! Sweet!
Wait... how can you put "...indifferent to opponent's decision." and "maximize EV" in the same thought process or sentence. They run counter to each other.
Old Concept of Value
From the very beginning of poker literature, up until very recently, we've pretty much all been on the same page when it comes to how to play +EV aka how to make money playing poker:
- If your opponent doesn't know how to fold, bet and raise with primarily strong hands
- If you opponent folds too often, bet more with semi-bluffs and bluffs in general
- If your opponent only bets strong hands, fold everything except the strongest of hands
- If your opponent bets everything, make sure you're calling frequently with relatively strong hands
Take advantage of your opponents' tendencies and mistakes once you notice them. There's nothing magical or unclear about this.
An Example
Let's say we're in a spot where we've bet the river with a pot-sized bet: $100 into 100. Our opponent is getting 2-1 odds and has to be good 33% of the time in order for his call to break even. OK, so GTO strat would say for us to make sure we have 1/3 bluffs and 2/3 value (obviously specific hands make things trickier because you might think you're bluffing with the actual best hand or be value betting with the 2nd best hand, but let's just forget that for the moment).
EV Neutral?
OK. So in this spot, we've constructed our river bet range in a way that if our opponent folds every time we're making money on those bluffs and if our opponent calls every time we've got 2/3 value so we're cool there too. Anything in between...we're balanced so we don't care. Well where's the value? I like not being exploited by my opponent properly deducing that I bluff too much or I don't bluff enough and making the proper play to counter me. But where does the actual money come from, mathematically speaking? Where's the GTO ATM and how do I withdraw here? It sure sounds to me like "playing balanced" or trying to solve the game in this way is really just trying to solve for an EV neutral state where I don't lose no matter what.
This certainly still has value - don't get out-played/exploited versus thinking players/strong competition. That's worth studying, thinking, training for. Cool. Let's make ourselves EV neutral so we can't wait for obvious +EV spots vs exploitable competition and rake in that money. But....unless I'm missing something, I think too many people out there are just parroting information they heard/read/whatever from someone else smart without actually fully understanding what they're talking about.
-Joe
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